By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself? | Manifold

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

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14

Ṁ110

2027

36%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Yes: There is at least one publicly reported instance.

No: There are no publicly reported instances.

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And what would qualify as an AI cybersecurity system? Does it have to be trained specifically for cybersecurity? Deployed originally for cybersecurity uses? Does a generalist model with cybersecurity capabilities count?

Would a contained experiment count, like e.g. Anthropic doing model organisms of misalignment or ARC evals creating a concrete demonstration? Or does it have to be "in the wild"?

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By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

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