The UK has assembled quite the team for its Foundation Model Taskforce, with strong support from No10. However, labor is poised to win the next election. Assuming they do, will Labor choose to keep the taskforce around?
Resolves to YES if, one year after a new labor PM takes office, the Foundation Model Taskforce still exists, with 50% or more of its previous budget, still in my judgment centrally making efforts intended to reduce extinction risk, without fatal interference from outside or from within that turns its strategies to obvious nonsense or otherwise makes it effectively non-functional.
Resolves to NO if, one year after a new labor PM takes office, the Foundation Model Taskforce does not exist inside the UK government, or has less than 50% of its previous budget, or has pivoted to concerns other than extinction risk, or has been forced into an Obvious Nonsense or clearly net-negative-for-x-risk strategy in my sole judgment.
Resolves to N/A if, by the closing date, Labor has not formed a UK government.
(I may revise the details of the criteria here for clarity and correctness as is justified, the goal is to be in the spirit of the actual question.)
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@ZviMowshowitz Starmer took office on July 5th 2024, can this be resolved?
I have betted this down a bit since AISI seems to have partially pivoted towards cybersecurity, crime prevention, and national security threats (e.g. with the creation of the Societal Resilience Team).
As for the funding: yearly budget seems to be around 50£ million (see table here), the initial 100£ million was a startup fund and it's unclear how the two would be compared.