Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?
492
5.7k
3.1k
2025
5%
chance

Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is a cofounder of a new company, with at least $500 million in funding, that declares it will attempt to train foundation models, aim to create AGI and compete with OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic.

Note that the company must declare it intends to train SOTA AI models or otherwise be explicitly aiming to create AGI - a generic AI company would not count.

(Getting this up fast, will clarify exact conditions as needed, suggestions welcome.)

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predicts NO
predicts NO
predicts YES

If the company is officially a subsidiary company under Microsoft, how does this resolve?

sold Ṁ266 of NO

@AdamK This seems like a critical question for resolution here.

bought Ṁ21 of YES

Related markets:

bought Ṁ250 of YES
bought Ṁ250 of YES

The new venture is microsoft backed, very likely with Sam Altman as the CEO of the new company

bought Ṁ180 of NO

@firstuserhere since hes joining Microsoft Research, would that be classified as a 'new' company?

Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is a cofounder of a new company,

And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team.

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@Blomfilter Likely going to be a separate company as Satya says Sam will be the CEO

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Continuing to ride along with Microsoft is exactly what I would expect him to do right now. They're his strongest direct big allies right now, why wouldn't he continue to invest strongly in that relationship with his time/commitments? To me, that's somewhat orthogonal to the question of whether he will want to get his best friends together and start a targeted new operation at some point in the next 13 months. It's a short timeframe so I probably sunk too much in, but still, I thought the size of the downward correction in response to the microsoft partnership news was too large. That said, I don't fully understand why it was at 55+ this evening in the first place vs. much less previously, so that probably wasn't a sound reference point for the community's "pre-microsoft-news" sentiment without the confounding signals from other nearby-in-time events..

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@TomPotter I gotta say, after making calculated large limit orders all evening, it was a little thrill to be a little wild and reactive for a sec -- it suddenly dropped and I thought I was seizing a moment to counter-bet someone's large estimate of a correction -- but in the end I think I just made a mistake and it was more regressing to the mean/usual haha! Don't know why I used the 55 part as a strong reference point :P Oh well.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 36% to 35%
predicts NO

@Akzzz123 Microsoft is not new company and Sam is not the cofounder of Microsoft

sold Ṁ725 of YES

I sold my Yes position, not because he won’t start a company but because the resolution criteria is very specific. My understanding is that he will probably try to create new chips to power LLMs. Also, I actually feel he won’t release anything for 1-2 years and will go back into silent build mode same as they did with OpenAI at the beginning.

@Soli here is another market with a different resolution criteria https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-sam-altman-start-a-new-company?r=U29saQ

@Soli Sam and Greg don’t strike me as people who would work on something they know others could solve. There are enough people working on LLMs right now. They will find a new challenge worthy of their time. Something that won’t be solved by anyone else if they themselves don’t do it.

@Soli I got so lucky wow haha

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@Soli What's the news?

@firstuserhere nothing new, I meant that I got lucky because I sold yesterday for a different reason. I did not expect there is a chance Sam could return but this is exactly the reason why this market has lower odds now.

This is an interesting question. I created a related market. https://manifold.markets/HenryE/in-the-event-sam-altman-does-create?r=SGVucnlF