Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2024, Sam Altman has publicly announced the founding of a new company where he is an official co-founder or equivalent founding member.
It resolves to “No” if there is no such announcement by this date.
The announcement must be verifiable through credible media outlets, press releases, or official statements from Sam Altman.
If Sam Altman joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.
Related:
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Does this count even if he founds a side company while continuing to primarily work at OpenAI?
Microsoft created a new entity for him and he maintained his CEO title. So this should count.
“If Sam Altman joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.”
@Joghn I bought this down while buying a similar market up- arbitrage + hedging my positions
@JaimeSantaCruz Yeah the past 48 hours have been a crazy 🎢 I got lucky and sold my position yesterday for very wrong reasons - I thought he would prefer to build in silent mode for a couple of years after getting so much publicity the past year
Someone with access to "sources" is betting on a new Altman company "by Monday," which is a very bold prediction IMO. Though even if the time frame is off by an order of magnitude, it's still a very bullish signal:
https://x.com/karaswisher/status/1725702612379378120?s=20
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