Will Sam Altman start a new company before 2025?
Dec 31
  • This resolves Yes if Sam announces the founding of a new company in which he is a co-founder or equivalent founding member.

  • If he joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.

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bought Ṁ25 YES

This is somehow obvious to me.

He is raising tons of money for outside ventures. He owns no shares in OpenAI so he has to do something to make money. He has a number of other existing ventures. This is an obvious Yes.

predicts NO

@BTE are you sure he is raising money under his own name and not OpenAI? I have a seperate question for the AI chips venture rumors but for OpenAI not Sam.

I guess both would resolve Yes if he is considered a founder and OpenAI puts money into it.

predicts YES

@Soli He started an independent VC fund last year. He is incentivized NOT to do anything under Open AI.

predicts YES

@BTE came here to say this - remains to be seen, but the headlines in recent days effectively say he's fundraising "for a new AI chip venture."


Based on everything I was able to gather there might have been an intention to create a separate entity under Microsoft which would be led by Sam but it seems did not go through. It is even questionable if such an entity would have been considered a separate company so I am strongly leaning towards it doesn’t count towards resolving this market. I am open for counter arguments but I don’t want this market to trade based on the ambiguity of the situation.

2 traders bought Ṁ1,022 NO
predicts YES

Does this count even if he founds a side company while continuing to primarily work at OpenAI?

only if he's a founder or cofounder title!

Microsoft created a new entity for him and he maintained his CEO title. So this should count.

@BTE I am a bit hesitant to share my thoughts when the market is still open but I hope everyone who participated in this market read the description.

@BTE I see you increased your YES position, do you still believe that the microsoft announcement should count (-> this resolves yes) or are you buying because you believe Sam will start a company before 2025?

predicts YES

@Soli I bought when i read that he has in the last six months started a new fund and he was in Saudi Arabia recently raising money for a new venture with Johnny Ive to build a device which I do not think will be part of OpenAI.

predicts YES

@Soli If this market was created before the Microsoft announcement then it should probably resolve YES because he was the CEO of a new company owned by Microsoft. But it would be better to wait to see if he starts an independent company. I think someone like Sam can't help themselves, all they think about is starting and running companies.

predicts NO

@BTE That’s a bit weird to say that the AI division is a separated company from Microsoft. Satya literally said it’s Microsoft’s new AI Group without a company name.

predicts YES

@esusatyo It doesn't matter anyway since it's explicitly excluded.

“If Sam Altman joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.”

WHY was this at 20-something %????

@Joghn I bought this down while buying a similar market up- arbitrage + hedging my positions

@firstuserhere mmmmm i see

thank you for the free play money

Odds here are not right. I have a rule not to participate in my own markets so I won’t fix

@Soli he could in theory return to OpenAI and start a new company 🤷🏻‍♂️ so judge by yourself

predicts YES

@Soli I’m hoping on that. I’m being obliterated by @sama markets

@JaimeSantaCruz Yeah the past 48 hours have been a crazy 🎢 I got lucky and sold my position yesterday for very wrong reasons - I thought he would prefer to build in silent mode for a couple of years after getting so much publicity the past year

@JaimeSantaCruz happy for you Jaime ;)

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