Elon Musk is talking big: https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1815493761486708993. Says that Grok 3 will come out in December and 'should be' the most powerful AI in the world.
Resolves to YES if Grok 3 is, at the time of its release, plausibly the most powerful AI in the world according to my best judgment. Has to be at least as strong as all models publicly available at the time.
Resolves to NO if it is not the most powerful.
(Resolves NO if no such model is released by 7/23/25, to ensure this doesn't go on forever.)
As of 7/23/2024 Claude Sonnet 3.5 is IMO most powerful AI, but GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in which some people prefer it. Gemini 1.5 Pro or Advanced would not qualify, but would have counted prior to Sonnet 3.5 and GPT-4o.
(I will not take clarifying questions on my criteria here, it will be my subjective take on 'is this plausibly the best LLM I can access right now.')
https://youtu.be/Kbk9BiPhm7o?t=2086
even Elon seems skeptical about grok 3 being the best in the world by EOY
"according to my best judgment"
This is a conflict of interest
"IMO"
This is anecdotal
This is a prediction of what works best for you, based on how you feel.
Note that Zvi has a full time (I think?) job covering AI, is trusted by many, and subject to a lot of scrutiny.