Resolves YES if Anthropic publicly and clearly endorses or supports SB 1047.
Resolves NO if they do not, no matter what they do in private, and the bill is signed or vetoed by Newsom, or the legislature's session ends.
Yep, edge case, but I'm going to go ahead and rule on it now (without resolving the market yet). I have confirmed my judgment with Claude and also ChatGPT. This letter, on its own, is NOT sufficient to constitute clear support. If they do not issue any further statements, it will resolve NO.
Of course, they could still do something between now and when the bill resolves, that would move this to support or endorsement.
@ZviMowshowitz Yeah I thought it was a clear YES but I now bought a lot of NO shares based on how you decided to resolve it
Uhhh…. Edge case incoming lol:
“In our assessment the new SB 1047 is substantially improved, to the point where we believe its benefits likely outweigh its costs. However, we are not certain of this, and there are still some aspects of the bill which seem concerning or ambiguous to us.“
https://x.com/jackclarksf/status/1826743366652232083?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
[edit- repeated top-level quote]
I don’t think this is ready to resolve yet.
It needs to be unconditional support, right? The previous "support if amended" shenanigans don't count, right?
And what if Anthropic subsequently (but before the bill is signed / vetoed by Newsom, or the legislative session ends) retracts their support?