Will a majority of Harvard undergrads train an LLM within 3 years as per Altman? | Manifold

Will a majority of Harvard undergrads train an LLM within 3 years as per Altman?

26

1kṀ1470

2027

3%

chance

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6H

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1M

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Sam Altman is quoted as saying: "“Every college student should learn to train a GPT-2… not the most important thing but I bet in 2 years that’s something every Harvard freshman will have to do”

For fun: Will this prediction hold up? We'll give them a 3rd year to adjust.

Resolves to YES if either (A) a majority of Harvard freshman have trained at least a GPT-2-level LLM by end of academic year 2026-27, OR (B) there is graduation requirement that students at Harvard train such an LLM.

Resolves to NO if neither of these things happens.

Note that a CS-department requirement does NOT count. This prediction was about the overall student body.

(If A is not obvious in its resolution and it is close enough that it would take a lot of effort to tell which way this should resolve, I may resolve to a percentage, but this seems highly unlikely.)

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sorry guys but the only graduation requirement is gonna be that sweet, sweet swim test. which doesn't exist anymore

bought Ṁ1 YES

risk free interest rate ahh market

bought Ṁ10 NO

something of a consensus

tough era to be a wordcel...

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Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Related questions

Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

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