In the annual state of AI report, this is the fifth prediction:

"The GenAI scaling craze sees a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model."

This resolves to YES if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was true.

This resolves to NO if the 2024 State of AI Report says this prediction was false.

If neither happens by market close, I will evaluate based on events as of 10/15/24. I would overrule them if and only if I feel their evaluation is unreasonable. If there is a particular model where we are uncertain about the threshold, and they resolve as ambiguous, I will resolve to a percentage, by default the final market price after correcting for any manipulation.

I will resolve this early if there is a clear example and this is trading >95%, but will not resolve to NO before the full year is out (but if this is <5% and the year is out, I will try not to wait for the full report if it is delayed).