Resolves to YES if CNN declares that Harris won the 2024 Presidential Election, and 24 hours later the price to buy Harris on Polymarket before fees is at least 97.0.
Resolves to NO if CNN declares that Harris won the 2024 Presidential Election, and 24 hours later the price to buy Harris on Polymarket before fees is below 97.0.
Resolves to Fair Market Price if CNN instead declares anyone other than Harris to have won the 2024 presidential election.
Only the first declaration counts, even if they take it back or reverse it.
(To be clear, if the market outright resolves during the 24 hour period, I will consider that a price of 100 or 0 cents accordingly.)
1,000
1.00Polymarket rules state that they will resolve based on media projections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The election denialism last cycle was a lot more concerning because Trump was commander-in-chief at the time and maybe he could have actually pulled off an autogolpe.
This time that's not the case and we know the supreme court didn't put up with his nonsense last time. There is also a lot more smart money on prediction markets this cycle.
From his house rules:
Ambiguous markets that have no other way to resolve, because the outcome is not known or situation is truly screwed up, will by default resolve to the manipulation-excluded market price, if I judge that to be a reasonable assessment of the probability involved. This includes conditional questions like ‘Would X be a good use of time?’ when X never happens and the answer seems uncertain.
So Zvi will attempt to exclude "manipulation", and this should not become a whalebait (at least in the "last minute large trade" sense).
(FWIW I disagree with this approach & I think the N/A resolution is a much more clean solution, but at a minimum I wouldn't worry about someone buying this to 1% to suck up the value in the case that Trump wins, Zvi would exclude that.)