By Mar 2025 will Zvi think working in the EU AI Office is a good idea to reduce x-risk?
30
1kṀ950
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
YES

By March 2025, will Zvi think that working for the EU's AI Office is a good option for Europeans to reduce existential risks from AI?

Question comes from Max (https://twitter.com/MaxHotz/status/1758122969732141489) who is considering such a position.

Resolves YES if I think this is a good option. Does not have to be best option, merely a good option.

Resolves NO if I think this is a bad option. Does not have to be actively harmful, merely not a good use of time.

I do not usually do this, but: Resolves to a percentage (which may or may not be market price) if I do not feel I have enough information to say nor does it seem worth the time to investigate. If I do this, I will not trade the market at any point.

AI
AI Safety
AI Alignment
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ118
2Ṁ62
3Ṁ40
4Ṁ31
5Ṁ20

People are also trading

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?
16% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
19% chance
Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025?
40% chance
WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?
73% chance
Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?
63% chance
In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Will I still consider improving AI X-Safety my top priority on EOY 2024?
73% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?
28% chance
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
24% chance
Sort by:

I'm going to resolve this YES. I do think this is a good option - not the BEST option, but definitely a good option. There's still work left to do.

@ZviMowshowitz Will you write more about this in AI #106?

@JaySocrates I will mention it.

@ZviMowshowitz ?

What does good idea mean? If more effective than most normal jobs at reducing AI xrisk but less effective than many other xrisk specific roles that the person could have worked for instead, then which way are you thinking of resolving?

People are also trading

By EOY 2026, will Yann LeCun do a 180 on his view of x-risk from AI?
16% chance
Will someone commit terrorism against an AI lab by the end of 2025 for AI-safety related reasons?
19% chance
Will xAI receive preferential treatment* by the Trump administration in 2025?
40% chance
WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?
73% chance
Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?
63% chance
In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Will I still consider improving AI X-Safety my top priority on EOY 2024?
73% chance
Will humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
10% chance
Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?
28% chance
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
24% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules