By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?
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1kṀ28932030
85%
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Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856. Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no. So, market, obviously.
Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.
If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.
If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.
(GLP-1 receptors are those used by Ozempic and other similar weight loss drugs.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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