By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents? | Manifold

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

58

1kṀ2893

2030

85%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856. Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no. So, market, obviously.

Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.

If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.

If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.

(GLP-1 receptors are those used by Ozempic and other similar weight loss drugs.)

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