By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?
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2030
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Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856. Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no. So, market, obviously.

Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.

If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.

If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.

(GLP-1 receptors are those used by Ozempic and other similar weight loss drugs.)

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Between 2023-01-01 and 2023-10-01, did LLMs or GLP-1 receptors have a bigger impact? I have no idea how to quantify this properly.

- Novo Nordisk has a market cap of $300b but not all of it is from Wegovy

- OpenAI has an implied valuation of $90b but its a hot new startup rather than a publicly traded company

- Nvidia has a valuation of $1.1T but not all of it can be attributed to LLMs

- ChatGPT plus has <5M paid subscriptions, netting ~1.2B/year in sales. Wegovy alone sold ~$4B worth of prescriptions so far.

- LLMs has probably caused at least some people to lose their jobs already. Wegovy might... reduce demand for nutritionists? Decrease snack sales? Hard to quantify either accurately.

So you could argue the impact question either way. Hard to make a good bet without at least figuring this out for 2023.

How does this resolve if AI is really big, but people have moved on from current Transformer-based next-token-prediction-trained LLM architectures to some other technique?

@WilliamEhlhardt I would consider the cumulative impact of LLMs before they were replaced, including if they played a vital role in enabling their successors, but yes this is specifically asking about LLMs not AI in general.

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