Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before a new movie grosses >$140M on its (domestic) opening weekend?
11
46
1k
2031
20%
chance
  • Visiting North Korea: I will accept reports corroborated by multiple reputable news organizations as sufficient proof. Feel free to ask if any scenarios feel ambiguous. [1]

  • Box office: I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Barbie is listed as $162,022,044, and thus would have counted for resolution (>$140M).

Other details:

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday/other "previews") for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

  • There is no obvious/strict end date here. If Putin dies, and is no longer able to visit North Korea, I can resolve the market as NO (as an event that cannot happen thus cannot happen "before" a different event) but this case is unlikely to matter.

  • If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.

[1]. If it happens during 2024, I am likely to follow the resolution of this market: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor.

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