Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before a new movie grosses >$140M on its (domestic) opening weekend?
resolved Jun 18
  • Visiting North Korea: I will accept reports corroborated by multiple reputable news organizations as sufficient proof. Feel free to ask if any scenarios feel ambiguous. [1]

  • Box office: I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Barbie is listed as $162,022,044, and thus would have counted for resolution (>$140M).

Other details:

  • For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday/other "previews") for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

  • There is no obvious/strict end date here. If Putin dies, and is no longer able to visit North Korea, I can resolve the market as NO (as an event that cannot happen thus cannot happen "before" a different event) but this case is unlikely to matter.

  • If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.

[1]. If it happens during 2024, I am likely to follow the resolution of this market: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

@traders Honestly this is nuts lmao. I made this question months ago (and didn't expect a >$140M opening until maybe Deadpool, if not further), and then Putin visits North Korea literally within ~48 hours of Inside Out 2 grossing >$140M? Turns out in the criteria I should have clarified exactly how I'm counting the timing, had no idea it might matter.

In this case, I think it's straightforward. Reports seem to say that Putin arrived in North Korea on Wednesday. While actuals weren't posted til later, it seems sensible to count Inside Out 2's opening weekend at EOD on Sunday. So with 48 hours of buffer, I think this can safely resolve NO.

bought Ṁ3,000 NO

Inside out just opened with USD 155 million https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3638199041/?ref_=bo_hm_rd

More related questions