Will Trump's second inauguration address be longer than his first inauguration address? (by word count)
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ2552
Jan 20
77%
chance

Resolution: I will use wordcounter.net, with a transcript posted to a .gov address, if available (otherwise I will substitute with the most reputable-seeming transcript I can find).

Here is the transcript for Trump's 2017 inauguration address. According to wordcounter.net, it was 1,444 words. Thus, this market resolves YES if Trump's 2025 inauguration address has 1,445 or more words.

  • I will resolve based on the most official transcript I can find, as long it is ~basically what Trump said. If the transcript differs from what he actually said aloud by a few words here or there, I won't be manually trying to adjust the word count to match what he actually says, I'll just use the transcript.

  • This assumes the transcript is ~basically correct—if Trump goes on long tangents that aren't included in the transcript for some reason, only then will I try to find a transcript of what he actually said.

  • I'm not going to second guess what wordcounter.net defines as a word—I'll just be copy pasting the transcript & accepting how it's counted.

  • (Note that there can be slight differences in word count depending on the source, e.g. Wikipedia lists his 2017 address as 1433 words instead, that's why I'm specifying my definition now).

  • This market will close before the inauguration.

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For anyone wondering, the 2017 inauguration speech was a few seconds over 16 minutes in total speaking time.

@PoliticalEconomyPK I made a market predicting the length of Trump's 2025 Inaugural Address (in minutes)
https://manifold.markets/BishopG/how-long-will-trumps-2025-inaugural

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