These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the exact sequence of words during his 2025 inauguration address/speech.
You can add your own options, but note: (1) I will be strict with resolutions & (2) I reserve the right to edit all entries to better match the spirit of the market.
Resolution may take a few days as I'd like to reference the transcript.
This market will close before the inauguration to return liquidity to submitters.
For reference, here is the transcript for Trump’s 2016 inauguration address.
Resolution rules:
Needs to be exact same words (in order): "laughing at all of us" does not count for "laughing at us".
Needs to match tense & pluralization: "winner", "won", or "winnings" do not count for "winning", and "Project 2025's ideas" doesn't count for "Project 2025".
However, any punctuation is fine ("Billions! And billions..." counts for "billions and billions"), and contractions also count as the expanded words ("what's" is equivalent to "what is").
An abbreviation is its own word: "MAGA" does not match "Make America Great Again", "LGBT" does not match "LGBTQ".
Different ways of transcribing the same word count: "January 6th" matches "January sixth".
To add flexibility to an answer, use parentheses or an "or". So " 'Free lunch(es)' or 'school lunch(es)' " matches "free lunches", "school lunch", & etc.
Update 2025-16-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
Additional Resolution Guidelines:
The market focuses on the exact words spoken, not on variations based on pronunciation or slang.
Variants like "YUGE" will not be considered equivalent to "huge" unless the exact word appears in the transcript.
Update 2025-20-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Guidelines:
The transcript will serve as the default reference but is not the final authority.
Resolution is based on what Donald Trump actually says during the inauguration.
The transcript will be used unless contested.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9,426 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,689 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,581 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,212 | |
| 5 | Ṁ893 |
@traders I resolved with the video and MSNBC transcript. With ~200 options, it is extremely plausible that I made some mistakes—please comment here if you dispute any of these.
THIS MARKET'S BIGGEST WHIFFS:
“Security”: 74%, resolved NO
"Hannibal Lecter" or "windmill(s)" or "mental institution(s)" or "shark(s)": 4%, resolved YES ("many from prisons and mental institutions that have illegally entered")
@Ernie people are welcome to set one up far in advance! typically i've preferred to more actively "run" them (especially via limit orders) so i've normally tried to wait until a few weeks before the event before setting them up. (the downside is that sometimes i'm busy and don't get around to it until a bit too last minute like with SOTU). but there's no harm in also having a long term one
@Ziddletwix ah thanks. And my bad, I hadn't realized the SOTU had moved from Jan to March now and was actually about to happen... I wonder how many people are in that boat?
@traders Super last minute (busy week, didn't have time to set it up earlier), but there's a few days left to place any bets/add any submissions for the first (unofficial) State of the Union in Trump's second term.
@traders I resolved with the video and MSNBC transcript. With ~200 options, it is extremely plausible that I made some mistakes—please comment here if you dispute any of these.
THIS MARKET'S BIGGEST WHIFFS:
“Security”: 74%, resolved NO
"Hannibal Lecter" or "windmill(s)" or "mental institution(s)" or "shark(s)": 4%, resolved YES ("many from prisons and mental institutions that have illegally entered")
@Ziddletwix I was hoping for some of my more niche ones to resolve yes, but turned out it was only the basic ones. Ah well.
@Ziddletwix Well done, thanks for your time! Also, huh, that mental institutions one seems really undervalued in retrospect. I wonder if sandwiching it between two outlandish remarks actually made it seem less plausible. Reverse conjunctive probability error!
@MingCat yeah i think that's exactly right—a reasonable option was smuggled in amongst 3 unreasonable ones, which makes their union seem less reasonable. also with 200 options, the prices on this market just weren't that efficient. that one only had 11 traders, and no trades in the last 8 days. with so many options, there were some "obviously wrong" prices buried in there.
e.g. for a more extreme "wrong" probability, ["Martin Luther King" or "MLK"] was at 33% while ["King" or "Prince"] was at 7% (both resolved YES when he said "Today is Martin Luther King Day"). hopefully anyone looking at that seriously would notice the error, but when skimming options it's easy to miss!
@Ziddletwix Yeah that MLK one is really interesting - almost like a human version of prompt engineering by including the word "prince".
@MingCat Maybe I included "prince" on purpose to trick people 😈 (I actually didn't think about MLK at all when I made it)
@PaperBoy there's this: https://philstarlife.com/news-and-views/978595-transcript-donald-j-trump-s-2025-inaugural-address?page=2 but it looks a bit informal, i'll probably wait until this
evening to see what the most official version is.
(the transcript won't be the final arbiter of truth here, what matters is what he says, but i will start with the transcript as the default until contested because there are 200 options)
@Felle This doesn't follow the format of the market—you have to specify words/phrases in quotes.
Do you want this to be "$Trump-Coin" / "Official Trump", matching either of those two specific phrases? Or something else? Otherwise I will N/A
@JaimeSantaCruz "the wall, it's gon be yuge I tell you, you won't believe how yuge it's gonna be, all the way over in gina they'll be talkin about how yuge it is, even yuger than the great wall of gina, they'll be askin me to come over and make their wall as yuge as ours, they'll be sayin make the great wall great again, it's gonna be so great and yuuuuge believe me"
@TheAllMemeingEye LOL 😂. Some commentators wrote that Chyna was going to find the wall to be yuge as well