When will there be a confirmation* of an adult human, whose IQ score was improved by 15 by gene-editing?
12
1.2kṀ30362050
39%
18%
[2050-2099]
8%
[2037-2049]
6%
2030
4%
2035
3%
2034
3%
2033
3%
Before 2026
3%
2032
3%
[2031
3%
2036
2%
2029
1.9%
2028
1.8%
2027
1.6%
2026
*Confirmation: Article in one of The Economist, NYT, Nature, or Science.
Based on LessWrong comment:
'gain of several standard deviations'
'we could have something working within 5 years, which might be soon enough to significantly impact the trajectory of AI.'
I'll add years beyond 2030 if necessary.
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