World Chess Championship Round 11 - Prop Bets

Plus

Ṁ17k

resolved Dec 9

Resolved

YES

Gukesh wins

Resolved

YES

One player will have 45+ minute more on the clock than their opponent before move 40

Resolved

YES

Someone spends 30+ minutes thinking for one move

Resolved

YES

Ding will be the first one to have 15+ minute think between the moves

Resolved

YES

Both players will spend more than 20 minutes on a single move

Resolved

YES

Both players castle kingside

Resolved

YES

Someone fianchettos their bishop during first 15 moves (moves it at b2/7, g2/7)

Resolved

YES

Someone will have 60+% win chance according to Leela (https://live.lczero.org/)

Resolved

YES

at least 2 pawns remaning on their initial squares at the end of the game

Resolved

Ding wins

Resolved

Someone refuses repetition

Resolved

Game ends in a draw by threefold repetition

Resolved

Game will last exactly between 35-45 moves

Resolved

Ding will make his 30th move with more time on the clock than Gukesh (Resolves NO, if the game ends before that)

Resolved

It will be a draw which ends in 35 moves or less

Resolved

Game will last 50+ moves

Resolved

Both players will have less than 5 minutes before their 40

Resolved

Ding castles first

Add any options you want. Ask for clarification if any options are unclear.

The game will be played on Sunday, 8th of December, 9 AM GMT.

https://lichess.org/broadcast/fide-world-championship-2024/game-11/z3yejSAa/HR3LzDhm

Credit to @Weezing for the question format.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#2024 World Chess Championship

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1,000

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7 Comments

14 Holders

161 Trades

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@traders round 13: https://manifold.markets/ZekeBass/world-chess-championship-round-13-p

@traders round 12 market: https://manifold.markets/dlin007/ding-vs-gukesh-2024-world-chess-cha

bought Ṁ150 YES

What are the ethics on betting on resolve-able questions when you’re the creator? Surely you should just resolve them instead?

@ZekeBass I thought it used to be the case that it didn't matter in terms of what you got back in mana, but that might have changed

bought Ṁ50 YES

@ZekeBass I think as long as the resolution criteria are objective, this is fine.

bought Ṁ15 YES

@ZekeBass Either way is fine imo. If it's at 90+% I usually just resolve, if it's lower I move it closer to correct place and then resolve.

bought Ṁ25 NO

@Weezing Yeah I guess not so important with objective criteria, my instinct is definitely just to greed out every last mana at 98+%

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