Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
17
1.5kṀ12352028
87%
Gavin Newsom
77%
Josh Shapiro
72%
Pete Buttigieg
47%
Gretchen Whitmer
45%
JB Pritzker
45%
Raphael Warnock
43%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
41%
Andy Beshear
37%
Roy Cooper
28%
Amy Klobuchar
28%
Jon Ossoff
28%
Stephen A. Smith
26%
Tim Walz
26%
Cory Booker
7%
Kamala Harris
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%. In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
2024: Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2020: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg
2016: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders
2012: [no data, presumably because Obama was virtually uncontested]
2008: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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