I am going to resolve this as No. The probability shown on the UI is 70%. The probability as queried by the API is 0.7. Neither of these is above 70%.

If you can produce a compelling argument for why this value is somehow greater than 70%, post about it here and we could consider a re-resolution, but I think it is highly unlikely.

If you're really into markets at 70%, here are some more you can bet on:

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-pierre-poilievre-bec

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-mmx-successfully-land-on-phobo

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tucker-carlson-start-his-own-y

https://manifold.markets/cockathiel/will-claire-wang-major-in-course-6

@Eliza Thank you!

If the percentage in question is 0.6, could someone technically make the argument that 0.6 in float is actually 0.6+2e-8? Or does manifold use something like bigdecimal

(Note that 0.7 in both float and double is less than 0.7, so it most likely doesn't affect resolution)

@SavioMak My understanding is all numbers in the system are of the Number type of JavaScript.

The exact pipeline from question creation, to bets, to copying from one cloud database system to a totally different database system.....eventually calculating the displayed probability, involves so many steps of "just use what Number says" that you would have a very difficult time constructing an argument that you should not use the result as displayed by the tools built into the system.

I think there is some evidence that the exact in-storage value in question that is displayed as 0.7, is likely ever so slightly smaller than 0.7 rather than ever so slightly larger (it is not exactly 0.7). But we would also need to verify that this same conversion is never done at any previous point, etc.

@Eliza thank you for resolving this in my absence

@ZalenZed Welcome back! The crowd was getting concerned that it would not resolve. Hope you didn't mind.

Not above 70% let's go

that’s rather unfortunate

exactly 70% sure isn't above 70%, looks like a NO to me!

The market creator hasn’t had any activity in the last 22 days…

@oh sorry, I uh, took a short vacation

The API returns a probability of exactly 0.7

market creator hasn't been active in about a month... might need to get a trustworthy user to resolve

inspired by this market

https://manifold.markets/KnowNothing/will-50-of-traders-be-in-the-red-at

Will >50% of traders be in the red at market close?

50% chance. Resolves YES if, at market close, the amount of positions with a Loss is greater than the amount with a Profit. Otherwise, resolves NO. For example, if the market looked like the attached image at close, this would resolve as NO. [image]

ahhh someone check the API to check decimal percentages

(me coping)

it resolved as no right? It resolved at 70% not above?

@DanPhillips yes!

Check the API?

@JimHays considering the last trade was a limit order it surely can't be above 70% right? regardless I don't think it should matter

@DylanSlagh I hope so!

@DanPhillips I hadn’t checked the history. I think the unfilled limit order ought to mean it’s exactly 70, but it is possible that there’s some weirdness in the way it’s precisely calculated?

@ZalenZed well done! Incredibly entertaining…

@jbjonas OP identified the safest way to make mana on these markets: via trader fees

@Tomoffer Well, with 162 unique traders and M5 each, @ZalenZed made M810. Is that paid along the way or when the market is resolved?

Not sure I understand why it closed at 70% when my last buy took it down to 50%?

@ChaseC because im a dumbass and it should have closed at 71

@8 Thanks for the mana!

@ChaseC dw, i gotchu!