## Related questions

# ๐ Top traders

# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|

1 | แน4,604 | |

2 | แน3,150 | |

3 | แน2,049 | |

4 | แน933 | |

5 | แน866 |

I am going to resolve this as No. The probability shown on the UI is 70%. The probability as queried by the API is 0.7. Neither of these is above 70%.

If you can produce a compelling argument for why this value is somehow greater than 70%, post about it here and we could consider a re-resolution, but I think it is highly unlikely.

If you're really into markets at 70%, here are some more you can bet on:

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-pierre-poilievre-bec

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-mmx-successfully-land-on-phobo

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tucker-carlson-start-his-own-y

https://manifold.markets/cockathiel/will-claire-wang-major-in-course-6

If the percentage in question is 0.6, could someone technically make the argument that 0.6 in float is actually 0.6+2e-8? Or does manifold use something like bigdecimal

(Note that 0.7 in both float and double is less than 0.7, so it most likely doesn't affect resolution)

@SavioMak My understanding is all numbers in the system are of the Number type of JavaScript.

The exact pipeline from question creation, to bets, to copying from one cloud database system to a totally different database system.....eventually calculating the displayed probability, involves so many steps of "just use what Number says" that you would have a very difficult time constructing an argument that you should not use the result as displayed by the tools built into the system.

I think there is some evidence that the exact in-storage value in question that is displayed as 0.7, is likely ever so slightly smaller than 0.7 rather than ever so slightly larger (it is not exactly 0.7). But we would also need to verify that this same conversion is never done at any previous point, etc.

@ZalenZed Welcome back! The crowd was getting concerned that it would not resolve. Hope you didn't mind.

The market creator hasnโt had any activity in the last 22 daysโฆ

inspired by this market

https://manifold.markets/KnowNothing/will-50-of-traders-be-in-the-red-at

@JimHays considering the last trade was a limit order it surely can't be above 70% right? regardless I don't think it should matter

@DanPhillips I hadnโt checked the history. I think the unfilled limit order ought to mean itโs exactly 70, but it is possible that thereโs some weirdness in the way itโs precisely calculated?