Will this question close above 70%?
162
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resolved Nov 2
Resolved
NO

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I am going to resolve this as No. The probability shown on the UI is 70%. The probability as queried by the API is 0.7. Neither of these is above 70%.

If you can produce a compelling argument for why this value is somehow greater than 70%, post about it here and we could consider a re-resolution, but I think it is highly unlikely.

If you're really into markets at 70%, here are some more you can bet on:

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-pierre-poilievre-bec

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-mmx-successfully-land-on-phobo

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tucker-carlson-start-his-own-y

https://manifold.markets/cockathiel/will-claire-wang-major-in-course-6

predicted YES

@Eliza Thank you!

If the percentage in question is 0.6, could someone technically make the argument that 0.6 in float is actually 0.6+2e-8? Or does manifold use something like bigdecimal

(Note that 0.7 in both float and double is less than 0.7, so it most likely doesn't affect resolution)

@SavioMak My understanding is all numbers in the system are of the Number type of JavaScript.

The exact pipeline from question creation, to bets, to copying from one cloud database system to a totally different database system.....eventually calculating the displayed probability, involves so many steps of "just use what Number says" that you would have a very difficult time constructing an argument that you should not use the result as displayed by the tools built into the system.

I think there is some evidence that the exact in-storage value in question that is displayed as 0.7, is likely ever so slightly smaller than 0.7 rather than ever so slightly larger (it is not exactly 0.7). But we would also need to verify that this same conversion is never done at any previous point, etc.

predicted YES

@Eliza thank you for resolving this in my absence

@ZalenZed Welcome back! The crowd was getting concerned that it would not resolve. Hope you didn't mind.

predicted NO

Not above 70% let's go

predicted YES

that’s rather unfortunate

predicted NO

exactly 70% sure isn't above 70%, looks like a NO to me!

predicted NO

The market creator hasn’t had any activity in the last 22 days…

predicted YES

@oh sorry, I uh, took a short vacation

predicted NO

The API returns a probability of exactly 0.7

predicted NO

market creator hasn't been active in about a month... might need to get a trustworthy user to resolve

predicted YES

ahhh someone check the API to check decimal percentages

(me coping)

bought Ṁ110 of NO

it resolved as no right? It resolved at 70% not above?

predicted YES
predicted NO

Check the API?

predicted NO

@JimHays considering the last trade was a limit order it surely can't be above 70% right? regardless I don't think it should matter

predicted NO

@DylanSlagh I hope so!

predicted NO

@DanPhillips I hadn’t checked the history. I think the unfilled limit order ought to mean it’s exactly 70, but it is possible that there’s some weirdness in the way it’s precisely calculated?

predicted NO

@ZalenZed well done! Incredibly entertaining…

predicted YES

@jbjonas OP identified the safest way to make mana on these markets: via trader fees

predicted NO

@Tomoffer Well, with 162 unique traders and M5 each, @ZalenZed made M810. Is that paid along the way or when the market is resolved?

predicted NO

Not sure I understand why it closed at 70% when my last buy took it down to 50%?

predicted YES

@ChaseC because im a dumbass and it should have closed at 71

predicted NO

@8 Thanks for the mana!

predicted YES

@ChaseC dw, i gotchu!