Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end?
33
1kṀ16k
resolved Mar 22
Resolved
NO

Elon says that Tesla will soon have a chat GPT moment in self-driving cars

"Yes, so I think Tesla is going to play an important role in AI and AGI. And I think I need to oversee that to make sure it's good. So because that's a thorny problem if there ever was one. I think generally, people do not -- very few people, even in the AI community, do not appreciate just how much capability Tesla has in AI. It's by far the most advanced real-world AI. There's no one even close. And reality has the most degrees of freedom. So I got to make sure that's good. We will have a launch event and we'll explore the issues in more detail. But I should say that...Tesla has actually tremendous capability in real-world AI. Yes. In fact, it is. Very far ahead of anyone. I don't know. People do talk about it online. I think Tesla will have a chat GPT moment maybe if not this year, I'd say no later than next year. You're gonna have a sort of chat GPT moment. Suddenly 3 million cars will be able to drive themselves with no one, and then 5 million cars and then 10 million cars."

I'll rely in the mainstream media calling it a ChatGPT moment, Google trends, how other automakers and tech companies react, demand for Tesla's cars, and my personal judgement to determine if Tesla has a ChatGPT moment. ChatGPT was launched in Nov 30th 2022 and I think it took some time to acknolwege how big the cultural impact was, therefore I will wait until February 2025 to close this market. I can close this markets to YES early.

If Tesla announcement is made in early 2025, it doesn't count.

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@mods This should probably resolve NO.

@mods Deleted creator account.

I agree with no.
Found a couple of refs suggesting 'getting close' to Tesla CGP moment or could be 'within months' but these can easily be interpreted to mean more like 'not here yet'. I didn't find anything really suggesting it had already happened. Couple shown below.

The service not launched yet, maybe a small trial in Austin not earlier than ~June 2025, likely expanding after that. As it is not launched yet, then I suggest it is very hard for it to have had cultural impact in 2024.

Disclosure: I do have a no position.


https://www.euronews.com/next/2024/10/11/teslas-cybercab-autonomous-vehicle-revealed-is-this-the-chatgpt-moment-for-robotaxis

"With this launch, I believe we are close to the 'ChatGPT moment' for robotaxis, when they will truly take off and become part of our mainstream transport landscape," Crijn Bouman, co-founder and CEO of Rocsys

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/07/approaching-teslas-chatgpt-moment-for-fsd-robotaxi.html
The world does not know and recognize it yet but within months the ChatGPT moment for Tesla will arrive and then people will recognize the world changing has started.

@mods 17 days since resolving no suggested.

“Real soon now”

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