Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Tesla begins delivering production vehicles equipped with its next-generation "AI 5" (also known as "Hardware 5" or "HW5") computer to retail customers on or before September 30, 2027 (the end of Q3 2027). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key details and rules:

• Definition of "AI 5": The computer must be explicitly designated by Tesla as "AI 5," "Hardware 5," or "HW5", or similarly branded as a major improvement. Upgraded versions of older hardware, such as "AI 4.1" or "AI 4+", do not satisfy this requirement.

• Delivery requirement: The vehicle must be a production unit delivered to a retail or commercial customer, rather than a pre-production prototype, experimental test fleet vehicle, or internal employee testing unit (unless officially sold and registered as a retail production vehicle).

• Verification: Resolution will be determined based on official Tesla announcements.

Background

Tesla's "AI 5" (formerly Hardware 5 / HW5) is the successor to its AI 4 (HW4) computer. In late 2025, Elon Musk announced that mass production of the AI 5 chip would be delayed to mid-2027. Though Tesla taped out the custom silicon with TSMC and Samsung, early production limits mean upcoming releases like the initial Cybercab runs are expected to launch on older AI 4 or updated AI 4.1 (AI 4+) hardware.

The AI 5 system is expected to deliver a massive leap in processing capability, targeting 2,000 to 2,500 TOPS (trillion operations per second) to handle dense neural networks for unsupervised FSD. This market tracks whether Tesla will beat its projected timeline and deliver the first AI 5-equipped vehicles to the public by the end of Q1 2027.

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