I think 50% is a good number because source energy is much higher than useful energy. Assuming batteries are used very efficiently with heat pumps, electric motors etc. Meaning the scales have tipped and batteries are doing more work than coal ever did in China.
This market will resolve based on comparing China's total energy output from battery storage systems to its historical peak coal energy output Resolution will use data from China's National Energy Administration (NEA) and the US National Bureau of Statistics and the IEA.
Current clean energy trends: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-clean-energy-pushes-coal-to-record-low-53-share-of-power-in-may-2024/
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China, as of June 2025, has 160 GW energy storage on grid:
This tracks with the daily solar peak generation being around 400 GW
So if we assume all batteries are perfectly charging or discharging 100% of the time (they're not) we'll say average 80 GW of battery output
And the average coal usage is about 0.7 TW, with total installed capacity 1.17 TW:
https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CN/72h/hourly
Can't find a good source of peak monthly coal TWH from china, but we can fermi estimate it to be 1TW month based on the capacity.
So it seems unlikely that 80 GW is going to catch up to 500 GW this year. And if I'm wrong due to obscene amounts of solar and batteries being installed, I'd be very happy for the state of the world. So it seems like good reasons to bet NO.