The Swift Centre top forecasters believe analysts underestimate China's future coal consumption. Will it surpass all the other forecasts in 2025 already?
Resolves YES if credible sources report that China consumed more than 4,500 Mt of coal in 2025.
Resolves NO if they report less than 4,500 Mt coal consumption.
Close date might be extended.
1,000Swift centre says "The IEA, widely regarded as the most authoritative voice on global energy trends,"
So what do they say now:
https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2025/demand
For 2025, global coal demand is projected to reach 8 845 Mt, setting a new record. The increase of around 40 Mt compared with 2024 is very similar to the forecast we made last year. While there were some unusual regional trends, they had the effect of cancelling each other out. The United States posted the largest absolute gain of about 37 Mt, supported by policy measures and higher gas prices. In the European Union (EU) the decline in coal demand slowed, mostly due to wind droughts in the first half of the year. And although India has been the engine of growth in recent years, in 2025 its coal demand has been falling.
Meanwhile, China’s coal consumption held steady at 4 953 Mt, with flexible coal-fired power supporting renewables and coal demand increasing for chemical production, offsetting declines in cement and other industries. ASEAN countries’ demand continues to expand on the back of new power capacity and metals processing activity. Overall, the picture is a complex interplay between expansion in emerging markets and the phase-out challenges in mature systems.
The 2024 report https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2024/demand said
China, the world’s largest coal consumer, accounted for over 56% of global demand in 2023. The country’s coal consumption increased by 6% to 4 883 Mt, with the power sector accounting for 63% of its coal demand.
However it is the 2023 report that Swift was disagreeing with. https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2023/executive-summary
We forecast that China’s coal consumption will fall in 2024 and plateau through 2026,
... https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2023/demand#abstract
Accounting for more than half of global coal demand, China is by far the world’s largest coal consumer. In 2022, the country’s overall coal demand rose by 4.6% to a total of 4 520 Mt,
Seems they were right that consumption would increase and they only slightly overestimated. More recent IEA reports have been more in line with what happened.
Anyway 4953Mt seems greater than 4500Mt.