This question will be settled on October 28th according to https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Remember to check the Atlanta fed GDP now forecast for weekly semi official predictions
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Also look at the Philadelphia Fed surveys:
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2023
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Analysis by Goldman Sachs and Fannie Mae released in the last few days show 4% and 4.9% growth respectively. With others now projecting 4%+ growth besides the Atlanta fed nowcast, I sold my NO shares!
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Do you think I should remove it from the descriptions for being a red herring?
@ZachariahSchwab I thought it was really awesome that you included it because I hadn’t heard of it before and it is valuable.
However, now that you ask I realize it’s weird to include that estimate but not others.
It’s just the one that changes most frequently and has the blue chip estimate within it. If you have the link for the Philadelphia fed I’ll add that.
@SoniaAlbrecht From what I've read (I think it was The Noise and the Signal), "professional forecasters" in economics have a really terrible track record. I'd trust a model more. Maybe not GDPNow but a model in general
GDPNow has overestimated the quarter's growth by 2 percentage points on average at this stage of the quarter since 2021.
https://twitter.com/steveliesman/status/1691784061574959300?s=20