Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
18
100Ṁ1202
Aug 31
87%
chance

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025) is reported as positive by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The official advance estimate, typically released in late July 2025, will be used for resolution. If the advance estimate indicates a positive GDP growth rate, the market resolves to "Yes"; if it indicates zero or negative growth, the market resolves to "No."

Economics
United States
US Economy
Federal reserve
Inflation
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy