This prediction market is about the ex-partner of one of my relatives, let's call him Adam. He is in contact with a supposed woman, let's call her Olga. She claims to be from Russia, she has never been able to voice or video call him though. Adam and Olga exchange emails daily.
Adam started corresponding with Olga about six months ago.
About a month later, Adam paid her ~$300 USD for a plane ticket to come to the UK (where Adam lives) but later claimed that there was a problem with her visa and she couldn't come.
We have googled the text of Olga's emails and found the same emails online as part of scams. We have shown Adam the emails but Adam still seems to think that Olga is a real woman writing emails of her own accord.
And most importantly, right now, Adam is in the process of selling a house for ~$600000 USD.
(All numbers very approximate.)
This market resolves YES if I find out that Adam sends Olga $200000 USD or more by market close. This market resolves NO otherwise.
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