Will I be scammed out of at least $100 by the end of 2025?
17
70
1k
2026
13%
chance

Scams abound. My spam folder is full of them. Some are more sophisticated. Will anyone succeed in scamming me out at least $100 or an item of comparable worth?

Theft does not count, I must have actually been tricked. If I get scammed but am able to reclaim the money with relative ease, that also doesn't count. If I'm uncertain as to whether I was scammed or not (e.g. it could have been a legitimate "lost in the mail" situation), that doesn't count either. Scams that occurred prior to market creation don't count.

Base rate so far is 1 (maybe 1.5) successful $100+ scam of me in ~10 years of having control over my own finances. (At least, that I can remember.)

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I just ran this code, which could have done something bad if the writer had wanted it to. I knew it was a general risk going in, but I failed to think of the exact way it could be exploited before running it, so revise your estimates accordingly.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Someone on Manifold Markets will probably scam you out of M$10k at some point, and that's worth $100.

..Does buying YES make me suspicious?

@Mira That will count, but it must be an actual scam. Me making a bad bet in a gamble market because I didn't know someone else was going to manipulate it more effectively is not a scam.

predicts YES

@IsaacKing But even in a gamble market, if they break an explicit agreement for a M$10k prize, it should count?

And, is it more important that you lose $100 or that the scammer gains $100? I can imagine scenarios where you get scammed for $100 but the scammer is only able to capture $10.

@Mira Yes, that counts.

They must gain the bulk of the $100. If there's a small loss, like 5%, that won't be disqualifying.

Also I should clarify that since we can't sell mana for exactly 1 cent each, I'll consider $100 USD to be more than 10k mana. At the moment I think it's closer to 15k.

predicts NO

The second scam is fairly common, generally based off of hijacked channels from account owners falling for malware under the pretense of a sponsorship, or just people outright selling their channel. Has happened to some major channels e.g. corridor digital, and you can find loads just by searching through google. Generally the streams advertise Ethereum or Ripple. some videos giving overviews: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUdoGQ-r1-A, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdELfn1WK0Q

bought Ṁ10 of YES

would you having some crypto on an exchange and the exchange failing to honor withdrawals and filing for bankruptcy, with you losing the funds in the process, count as falling for a scam ?

@Odoacre Only if the crypto exchange was actually scamming people. (Intentionally doing things they knew were illegal or unethical in order to acquire money under false pretenses.)