Will Erdogan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?
resolved May 28

Background: On June 18, 2023, the Turkish general election will be held which will include the first round of the Turkish presidential election. According to opinion polls, Erdogan could lose in the second round against certain potential candidates.

Update: The first round has been moved forward to Sunday, May 14.

This market will resolve as YES if Erdogan is declared the winner of 2023's first presidential election by the Supreme Election Council, and NO otherwise.

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AlexbGoode avatar
Alex B. Goodepredicted YES at 99.1%
MayMeta avatar

@xyz other markets are already resolving as YES /BTE/will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-be-reelec

KongoLandwalker avatar
Kongo Landwalkerbought Ṁ80 of YES



Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: 85 milyon kazandı, Türkiye Yüzyılı’nın kapısını açtık
Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan: 85 milyon kazandı, Türkiye Yüzyılı’nın kapısını açtık
Cumhurbaşkanı ve AK Parti Genel Başkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, “Bugün kazanan sadece Türkiye’dir. Demokrasimizden, kalkınmamızdan, hedeflerimizden taviz vermeden şimdi Türkiye Yüzyılı’nın kapısını açtık.” dedi.
Timothy avatar


cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonpredicted NO at 82%

The election outcome will be determined to a likely significant extent by Sinan Oğan's direction to his voter base.

There are a couple of reasons he may choose to publicly support Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu:
- Both Kemal and Sinan are currently members of parties that are ideologically Kemalist.
- Sinan has said he will support the candidate that is more "anti-Syrian", while Erdoğan seems actually relatively more "pro-Syrian" than is Kılıçdaroğlu.
-- https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230504-turkey-s-syrians-root-for-erdogan-in-may-vote
-- https://npasyria.com/en/97735/

However, Sinan is also "anti-Kurdish", which could mean a higher chance of supporting Erdoğan instead:
- https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-runoff-potential-kingmaker-draws-red-line-kurdish-consessions-2023-05-15/
- https://www.arabnews.com/node/2299416/middle-east

It is very sad that this second round be framed so divisively, by such a far right figure, and by such xenophobic stances in general.

Note: I have not researched into RTE/KK swing voters yet, so there is still further uncertainty even beyond what is suggested by the above information.

MP avatar
MPpredicted NO at 82%

@cloudprism boy, Erdogan won with 49.5%. It would need that more than 80% of the people that voted to another candidate to vote to Kilicdaroglu

cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonpredicted NO at 84%

@MP like bernie endorsing biden

finnhambly avatar
Finn Hamblypredicted YES at 77%
AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderpredicted NO at 77%

How could he lose? He needs 15% of the far-right candidate's vote (or even just 25% of them to abstain) (double check I need to do the math)

BraulioValdivielsoMartine avatar
Braulio Valdivielso Martínezpredicted NO at 81%

@AaronKreider why do you predict no then? Lol

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderbought Ṁ200 of YES

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine That's old info. I'm on YES.

xyz avatar

Lower level question of whether Erdogan gets a plurality of the votes this round

cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jacksonbought Ṁ250 of NO

Erdogan's lead is steadily reducing, currently at 50.7% according to Wikipedia. Runoff is likely.

DanMan314 avatar
Danpredicted YES at 63%

@cloudprism Manifold agrees:

DanMan314 avatar
Danpredicted YES at 63%

I saw a tweet that polls where Kilicdaroglu is leading are getting appealed, so that might cause delay in reporting that favors him and close the gap. I don’t think it will be enough to erase Erdogan’s lead but it seems likely to dip him under 50%.

MP avatar

Do we have markets on concessions and democratic transfer of power?

finnhambly avatar
Finn Hamblybought Ṁ100 of NO
xyz avatar
Yoavsold Ṁ97 of YES
MP avatar

42% done.

Erdogan is still ahead.

AaronKreider avatar
Aaron Kreiderpredicted NO at 36%


finnhambly avatar
Finn Hamblybought Ṁ50 of YES


xyz avatar
Yoavpredicted YES at 35%
MP avatar
MPpredicted NO at 37%

What a great day this market is trading at 37%. Let's crush these autocratic assholes

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