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This was a TRANCHE TASTIC demonstration of CURVACEOUS MARKET FORZEZ

Well, this market was a failure. 20% absolute error.

@Yev But you picked up 600 mana. Incentives not aligned.

@MartinRandall I didn't do anything you couldn't have done

@Yev My incentives also not aligned.

@MartinRandall No one's incentives are aligned. Resolve to prob is a failure.

25 good number.

I'm delegating randomization to jack because I'm at a Petrov day celebration. If he says the market closes today, it does. If he says it doesn't, it doesn't.

This will be the RNG mechanism:

Get the first Bitcoin block mined after midnight UTC, according to https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks. Take the last 8 hexadecimal digits of the hash, convert that to an integer, and divide by 16^8. This results in a random number between 0 and 1 that is publicly verifiable and highly resistant against manipulation. (See for example https://eprint.iacr.org/2015/1015.pdf)

This is the same RNG mechanism I used in https://manifold.markets/jack/resolves-yes-1-chance-na-99-chance

As Yev said, this will use the same rules (1/3 chance of close)

Here is the bitcoin block: https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/755858

Last 8 hexadecimal digits of hash: 820ac7af

Result: 0.5079769899602979

This is > 1/3, so the market stays open.

Block: https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/755987

Last 8 digits: 67b6ae72

Result: 0.4051312473602593

This is > 1/3, so the market stays open

I forgot to do this yesterday:
Block: https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/756137

8 digits: cc9cc72c

Result: 0.7992672426626086
This is > 1/3, so the market stays open

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/756280

17476215

0.090932970168069 < 1/3

Market resolves to Sep 29 average

I think there were no trades on Sep 29 UTC, so the average is 20%. Please let me know if I made a mistake.

@Yev Works for me

Yeah looks right to me.

I will use the same resolution mechanism as jack.

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-be-president-on-915-reso#3s2gPDWSeM104vHho3hg

I'm working on fleshing out details of the random (Poisson) process for determining the close time. There's some discussion here: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/is-the-sky-blue-resolves-to-mkt#jvnC6tH17DO2tuxS5WkQ. I'll be posting more details soon and asking the market for feedback. In the meantime (just a couple days probably), the market will continue to operate on the rule of closing after a period of 24 hours of no change (to the nearest whole percent) as described on Martin's market.

Is this the probability that he makes such a trade before this market closes?

@MartinRandall I don't actually know, I'll let the market decide :)