Resolves to MKT (market probability) at a time determined as follows:

. I will bet in this market and may bet in any direction.

Sep 8, 8:47am: adding detail on extending close date based on lack of quiescence.

Sep 18, 9:56am: changed quiescence criteria to be less vulnerable to creator effects.

Close date updated to 2022-09-22 11:00 pm

Close date updated to 2022-10-22 11:00 pm

Resolves to MKT (meaning resolves to whatever the market probability is at the time of close).

The market close time will be quasi-randomly extended if there is still ongoing trading activity; using a procedure similar to what 

 describes on the market linked below. This is to avoid encouraging big last-minute trades to move the market.

I will bet in this market and may bet in any direction.

: There are many ambiguous, hard-to-resolve questions that people have created on Manifold that use a "self-resolving" mechanism of resolving to the market probability (see examples in 

https://manifold.markets/group/selfresolving

 and in the comments). However, there are many concerns about how well such mechanisms work and how reliable they are especially against price manipulation.

This question asks whether Biden will be president on September 15. But instead of me determining the resolution, this is a "self-resolving" market. This experiment uses a question that could easily be resolved by conventional means so we can evaluate how well it did, and potentially apply those lessons to other self-resolving markets that are harder to resolve with objective resolution criteria. This is an experiment inspired by discussion with 

Note that the question is still about Biden's presidency on 9/15 regardless of when the market actually closes (the idea 

 proposed was that theoretically the market should converge to nearly 100% after the outcome becomes certain - I am more skeptical).

Close date updated to 2022-09-17 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-18 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-19 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-22 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-09-25 11:59 pm

Sep 25, 4:17pm: Current proposal (summarizing the comments): The market will close with a Poisson process during the window 9/26 through 9/30. Starting 9/26, shortly after the end of each day (UTC time), close with probability 1/3 using a public verifiable random number generator. After the end of September 30, close unconditionally. On close, compute an (exact or approximate) average (mean) market probability over that preceding day (24 hours, midnight to midnight UTC time), and resolve to this value.

Note: Midnight UTC = 5pm Pacific, 8pm Eastern.

Resolves YES if @Spindle makes a bet of >=M$500 on any market that ends with "[Resolves to MKT]". This market doesn't count (it has an extra question mark). Limit orders count if they are fulfilled.

Markets which currently match that description: