Will Biden be president on November 7, 2022? (90% chance of resolving to quiescent market price)
Will Biden be president on November 7, 2022? (90% chance of resolving to quiescent market price)
10
260Ṁ1175resolved Nov 12
Resolved as
96%1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Let's combine /zzq/will-biden-still-be-president-at-th and /dreev/biden-quiescence.
This market will stay open until the end of Nov 7.
The market will then stay open until the market price fully quiesces, meaning that it varies by at most 1% during some 72-hour period.
With probability 90%, it resolves the quiescence price.
Otherwise it resolves to whether Biden was president on Nov 7.
Close date updated to 2022-11-11 12:26 pm
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.