[EXPERIMENTAL][20x AMPLIFIED ODDS] Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in the first month after market quiescence?
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7
Ṁ538resolved Dec 21
Resolved as
7%1D
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This market closes when it reaches quiescence (72 hours with probability moving by at most 1%). This market resolves 30 days later.
If during that month a nuclear weapon was detonated offensively (using the criteria from /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise it resolves MKT with probability 95% and NO with probability 5%.
[Since this market is experimental, I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if this market mechanism is not working]
Close date updated to 2022-11-19 10:15 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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