Will there be a war between the US and Iran before January 2026?
7
100Ṁ1302026
40%
chance
6
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Background:
This question explores whether the recent tensions in the Middle East will escalate into a war.
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, etc) report a military conflict involving both the US and Iran resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2026.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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