Background
Political Stability: Iran’s government faces mounting domestic challenges, including significant economic distress, recurring large-scale protests, and internal factional disputes.
External Tensions: Increasing military tensions with Israel, the U.S., and neighboring Gulf states could potentially lead to direct military intervention or amplify domestic unrest.
Recent Events: Throughout 2024 and early 2025, Iran has experienced intense public demonstrations over economic conditions, women’s rights, and governance issues, leading to speculation about regime resilience. Additionally, Israel has recently escalated military actions targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, adding to regional instability.
Resolution Criteria:
The outcome resolves as YES if at least one of the following occurs before January 1, 2026:
Leadership Flight: Iran’s Supreme Leader and/or President publicly confirmed as fleeing Iran due to a credible threat of loss of power or imminent regime collapse.
Arrest or Detention: Iran’s Supreme Leader and/or President officially confirmed to be arrested or detained by opposition forces, a new governing body, or invading foreign forces.
Establishment of a new ruling authority: A new regime or temporary government is formally recognized or acknowledged internationally or domestically as replacing the current Iranian government.
Successful Foreign Invasion or Coup: External military forces or internal coup plotters establish control over the capital (Tehran) and officially declare removal of the current regime.
The outcome resolves as NO if none of these conditions are met before January 1, 2026.
1,000