In what year will China's nominal GDP first exceed that of the United States?
1
150Ṁ10
2100
November 19, 2037
17%
2025-2029
21%
2030-2034
21%
2035-2039
21%
2040-2044
21%
2045-2050

Background

China already became the world's largest economy on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis in 2016, according to both the World Bank and IMF estimates, even though the United States still leads when measured at market exchange rates.

As of 2024, China's nominal GDP is about 73 % of the U.S. level ($18.3 tn vs $25.0 tn in 2022 IMF data) and the gap has been narrowing roughly 1-2 percentage points per year. Whether-and when-China overtakes the U.S. in nominal terms hinges on factors such as:

  • real growth differentials,

  • inflation and deflation trends,

  • RMB-USD exchange-rate movements, and

  • structural headwinds (demographics, real-estate deleveraging, productivity reforms).

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the first calendar year in which China's nominal GDP surpasses that of the United States and satisfies all of the following:

  1. Data source: The April or October edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is the primary source. If the IMF ceases publication, revert to World Bank World Development Indicators or OECD Economic Outlook in that order.

  2. Threshold: China's reported figure must be greater than U.S. figure by at least 1% to avoid rounding artefacts.

  3. Definition of “Nominal GDP”: The GDP figures used for resolution are those published for the same calendar year in which China first exceeds the United States. For example, if the crossover occurs in 2037, both countries’ Nominal GDPs will be taken in 2037 U.S. dollars, exactly as reported in that year’s IMF World Economic Outlook (or fallback source).

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A few questions:

If this is nominal (rather than real) GDP, then does that mean that this is in current USD (rather than e.g. 2015 USD), thus large currency exchange rate spikes could cause this to resolve even if the actual economies haven't significantly changed sizes?

Does this resolve to final bucket or n/a if it doesn't happen before China ceases to exist (e.g. is annexed, balkanises, or even entirely erased)?

Is China defined as any territory controlled by the Chinese government (may expand or shrink), or just the current territory (even if parts of it become controlled by other governments in the future)?

If China creates an ASI, which the government officially claims is subservient to them, but in reality it appears to just be doing its own thing mostly independent of the human population, and it's so powerful that they couldn't hope to exert actual control over it if it turned on them, does it count as part of China?

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