Background

China already became the world's largest economy on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis in 2016, according to both the World Bank and IMF estimates, even though the United States still leads when measured at market exchange rates.

As of 2024, China's nominal GDP is about 73 % of the U.S. level ($18.3 tn vs $25.0 tn in 2022 IMF data) and the gap has been narrowing roughly 1-2 percentage points per year. Whether-and when-China overtakes the U.S. in nominal terms hinges on factors such as:

• real growth differentials,

• inflation and deflation trends,

• RMB-USD exchange-rate movements, and

• structural headwinds (demographics, real-estate deleveraging, productivity reforms).

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the first calendar year in which China's nominal GDP surpasses that of the United States and satisfies all of the following:

1. Data source: The April or October edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is the primary source. If the IMF ceases publication, revert to World Bank World Development Indicators or OECD Economic Outlook in that order.

2. Threshold: China's reported figure must be greater than U.S. figure by at least 1% to avoid rounding artefacts.

3. Definition of “Nominal GDP”: The GDP figures used for resolution are those published for the same calendar year in which China first exceeds the United States. For example, if the crossover occurs in 2037, both countries’ Nominal GDPs will be taken in 2037 U.S. dollars, exactly as reported in that year’s IMF World Economic Outlook (or fallback source).