In what year will China's GDP PPP exceed triple that of the United States?
0
175
2120
December 31, 2069
17%
2040-2049
17%
2050-2059
17%
2060-2069
17%
2070-2079
17%
2080-2089
17%
2090-2100

Background

China surpassed the United States as the world's largest economy in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 2016. Currently, China's GDP (PPP) significantly exceeds that of the U.S. but hasn't yet reached triple its size. Factors influencing the trajectory include:

  • Economic growth differentials between China and the U.S.

  • Currency exchange dynamics

  • Demographic and productivity trends

  • Global economic conditions

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to the first calendar year in which China's GDP measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) surpasses triple the GDP (PPP) of the United States, based on the data from:

  1. IMF's World Economic Outlook database (April or October editions). If unavailable, revert to World Bank or OECD Economic Outlook.

  2. Threshold: China's GDP (PPP) figure must be clearly at least triple the U.S. figure by a margin sufficient to avoid rounding errors (minimum of 1%).

Global Macro
China
US Economy
Inflation
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