Background
India is presently the world’s #3 economy in purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms, with an estimated output of about US $17.6 trillion in 2025. The United States stands at roughly US $30.5 trillion, making the U.S. a little over 70 % larger (India ≈ 58 % of U.S. size). Rapid expansion in India’s vast domestic market—spurred by urbanisation, infrastructure investment, and a booming services and high-tech sector—leads many forecasters to ask when the country might overtake the U.S. outright in PPP terms.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the first calendar year in which India’s GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is at least 1.00 times (≥ 100 %) the GDP (PPP) of the United States, according to the following rules:
Primary data source — Use the April or October release of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) for the relevant year. If IMF figures are unavailable, refer sequentially to the World Bank PPP GDP series or the OECD Economic Outlook data.
Calculation method — India’s PPP-adjusted GDP is taken directly from the selected dataset. The figure must be greater than or equal to 1.00 times the U.S. PPP GDP in the same dataset and year.
1,000