Background
India is currently the world’s #3 economy in purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms, with an estimated output of roughly US $17.6 trillion in 2025. The United States stands at about US $30.5 trillion, making the U.S. a little over 70 % larger (India ≈ 58 % of U.S. size). Rapid expansion in India’s vast domestic market—driven by urbanisation, infrastructure build-out, and a booming services and high-tech sector—leads many forecasters to ask when the country might ultimately overtake the U.S. by large multiples in PPP terms.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the first calendar year in which India’s GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is at least 3.00 times (≥ 300 %) the GDP (PPP) of the United States, under the following rules:
Primary data source — Use the April or October release of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) for the relevant year. If IMF figures are unavailable, refer sequentially to the World Bank PPP GDP series or the OECD Economic Outlook data.
Calculation method — Take India’s PPP-adjusted GDP directly from the chosen dataset. The figure must be greater than or equal to 3.00 times the U.S. PPP GDP in the same dataset and year.
1,000