Background
At present, India ranks as the world’s #3 economy in purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms, with an estimated output of about US $17.6 trillion in 2025. The United States stands at roughly US $30.5 trillion—making the U.S. a little over 70 % larger (India ≈ 58 % of U.S. size). Rapid expansion in India’s vast domestic market, continued urbanisation, and the growth of high-value services and manufacturing lead many forecasters to ask when the country might ultimately surpass the U.S. by large multiples in PPP terms.
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to the first calendar year in which India’s GDP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is at least 4.00 times (≥ 400 %) the GDP (PPP) of the United States, according to the following rules:
Primary data source — Use the April or October release of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) for the relevant year. If IMF figures are unavailable, refer sequentially to the World Bank PPP GDP series or the OECD Economic Outlook data.
Calculation method — India’s PPP-adjusted GDP is taken directly from the selected data source. The figure must be greater than or equal to 4.00 times the U.S. PPP GDP in the same dataset and year.
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