🏅 Top traders

@Mqrius Im thinking of modifying all these markets from “conditional on x” to “on the next launch which passes x”. Does that sound like A) a good idea, and B) substantially similar enough that it isn’t a rug pull?

I think it's substantially similar enough. In both cases it will be the next time it gets to that point, so it's not like they can gather more flight data for that event. Percentages would increase sliiightly because it might be a more mature vehicle.

And yeah go for it, I don't really like N/A markets :P

Might wanna add all your markets to Space and SpaceX groups btw

Also here's a nice overview:

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-e8c4c569d626

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-19d3901cff4e

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-a003f51d2735

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-14c675743e57

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-d68d3a448fed

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-cfecc0220e33

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-fab4f12c2e50

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-efacc82ec88b

/YaakovSaxon/on-the-next-full-stack-launch-of-st-a7e4be4f3a44

Here it is in plaintext so you can add it to the market descriptions. Paste, then click at the end of the line, wait a few seconds, and click the market in the dropdown.
%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) will it clear the tower?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) which clears the tower, will it pass max q?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) which passes max q, will stage separation be nominal?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) with nominal stage separation, will booster reach intended site?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the booster reaches intended site, will landing be nominal?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) with nominal stage separation, will second stage engines light?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the second stage lights, will it reach intended apogee?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the second stage reaches apogee, will reentry be nominal?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) with a nominal reentry, will it reach landing zone?

%On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the second stage reaches zone, will landing be nominal?

Does it need to pass Max Q undamaged?
There's some indication that today's launch crumpled the interstage, so while it did pass Max Q, the damage might have prevented the separation later on.

But if it would have to be undamaged, what about if tiles fall off?

@Mqrius Good point. So let’s say that if any later bad event can be very clearly traced back to an off nominal stage separation then this will be judged NO. (But if unclear I will err on the side of YES)