On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) where the second stage reaches apogee, will reentry be nominal?
Apr 21

I'm mainly asking if it will burn up on reentry. In case of ambiguity: any mission failure that ultimately gets traced back to a non nominal reentry, eg heat tiles don't work and that damages the vehicle which causes it to not land properly, this will be judged NO. On the other hand, if the rest of the mission is wholly successful then even if part of the reentry seems a little bit off nominal, this will be judged YES.

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predicts NO

The next two flights are expected to be Starships that don't have heat shield tiles, and thus won't actually try to survive reentry. I propose that in those situations this market doesn't apply and would stay open until the next flight that aims for reentry.

@Mqrius I didn’t realize that. Suggestion endorsed