On the next full stack launch of starship (after 4/20) with a nominal reentry, will it reach landing zone?
8
50
190
Jun 2
88%
chance

Landing = landing or splashing down, whatever was intended.

On the next launch to have a nominal second stage reentry, will any flyback maneuvers etc necessary to get it to the intended landing zone succeed, such that it is in nominal position and condition to perform the final landing, irrespective of whether that fails for other reasons.

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predicts YES

@SirCryptomind This is incorrect. None of the flights have had any reentry, so this market shouldn't resolve yet. Also, Yaakov is active, sometimes. Market should re-open