This question will resolve YES if there is no known and publicly available technology that results in sleep not being needed at the end of 2039.
Otherwise, it will resolve NO. If mind uploading or something akin to it exists by then, then if the technology does not require some downtime it will also resolve to NO.
This market’s prob. is insane, but it’s only accurate to within… (checks notes) … 80% of the true value, assuming a discount rate of 5% over 16 years. So, I’d estimate the true probability would lie between 0% and 100%.
If someone wants to buy NO around 85% prices I can provide liquidity. just not placing limit orders in advance bc I'm low balance and I need to sell some positions before the limit orders do anything
@Tumbles oh yeah if the tech requires genetic engineering and only works on new babies (can't be done on living humans) that would probably resolve this YES? and seems kinda doable, some freaks of nature ~don't sleep iirc?
@Tumbles that stuff spooks me, I don't understand this mystical power. does he not have psychosis? does he implicitly replace his sleep with hours of restorative mindlessness? I am confused. the average person trying to sleep 1-2 hours per night probably goes insane after days or weeks right? i don't have a great sense of this
@Bayesian Hard to say... they kind of are insane, but not the kind of insane you would expect from someone hardcore sleep deprived. They are a good conversationalist, capable of paying attention without effort. I kind of assume their meditation is a little bit more sleepish than some people
@Tumbles I'll give you some of the Modafinil I got from a shady Indian site if you need it. It'll keep you "woke" in your battle against prediction market libertarians.
@JonathanRay your limit orders were cancelled btw. happy to take more of them if you wanna put them back up, up to you tho
(Oops, never mind, misread something about resolution criteria.)
@Zesharwama question is when, i kind of doubt it will go that fast. Science barely even understands how our brains work at this point. Even why we sleep is not fully understood in itself, lol.