Will working be necessary in 2070?

Will a typical biological American citizen be required to work in order to live comfortably in 2070?

Comfortably defined as subjectively equivalent to the standard of living of the median American in 2023.

Resolves ambiguously is the US does not exist at time of resolution.

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@JacobWood Can you confirm or denies that what there is in Europe, where there are some welfare programs that you can ask for if you have no job and meet some criteria, would not make it resolves YES ?

Or more generally, is the idea than the typical American citizen don’t have to work to have a functional society (because mostly everything is automated), or that anyone, individually, can manage to stop to work, as long as the others continue to work.

I mean - it is not necessary today in Europe

bought Ṁ30 YES from 39% to 40%

@RanaG At the moment, this market is too vague and subjective for me to trade. Please make it specific.

@RanaG I don't have to work in Europe?? Buying a plane ticket rn

@RanaG This is required, what do you mean ?

@dionisos you can live off benefits with life standards similar to median household in 1920 or maybe even better

@RanaG In general benefits in Europe require work, are conditional, or are non-financial.

@MartinRandall the work conditions are optics, conditions are easy or even non existent if you have kids/pass a certain age

@MartinRandall and the fact that they are non financial is just an optionality issue of how to use resources. Society will decide to give you the average basket of goods and services

@RanaG This is about the "typical biological American". According to the OECD database, around 6% of the working-age population across 15 OECD countries receives unemployment benefits.

In Germany and France around 8% of the working-age population receives unemployment benefits.

Source: https://www.oecd.org/social/social-benefit-recipients-database.htm

Meaning working IS necessary for the 'typical biological European' today

@RanaG Having kids is work.

@Donald these numbers are higher than I expected which proves my point. The overwhelming majority of people who don't work are not unemployed, they are outside the labour force, they receive many categories of benefits e.g. Child care, disability, state pension

@MartinRandall weird categorisation. Many wouldn't describe it as work to live comfortably.

@RanaG still doesnt add up 50% of population though

@Donald I never said it is the typical German. I emphasise that the living standards are below current standards. I mentioned it is possible for a significant portion of the population to live without working for a standards of living of a few decades ago. Obviously not the majority of people choose that path.

@RanaG Every parent I've met describes parenting as work. People hired to perform work in place of parents, such as babysitters, nannies, tutors, etc, are generally paid workers.

@MartinRandall standards of living is reduced by the work of raising children (collateral cost) rather than a product thereof.

@MartinRandall the only way this would make sense is if having grown adults around you (the product of the labour of raising children) is a substitute to the basket of goods defining the standards of living in 2023 in the question

@RanaG The conditions aren’t optics, otherwise nobody would be homeless or poor.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

How are we defining "work"? If they have to press one button per day that says "live comfortably", are they working by pressing that button?

predicts NO

@12c498e I would say no, that doesn't count as work in the way I mean it. But I am not sure exactly how to operationalize it - any good ideas?

@JacobWood What do you think of setting the condition as "work requiring an amount of effort close to the subjective standards of the median American in 2023", or something? I'm assuming that's the intention, where it would resolve NO for clearly "next to zero" work but YES if it's "different" while still as demanding, or only slightly less demanding.

@JacobWood if you have to resolve this question yourself in 2070 that sounds like work to me. Just put it off 'til then and the answer will be clear

@12c498e I think that is pretty close to the intention, but a bit stricter than I was imagining. Maybe "work requiring >10 minutes per day at >50% of the effort that the median American puts in at work in 2023" or something?

@JacobWood I think this is ok, as long as we take into account than this less than 10mins of necessary work should really be accessible to everyone. (if people working, work less than 10mins, but everybody else have no real access to this, it should resolve YES)
(Probably obvious, but we never know)