Resolves YES if #1 he is convicted of a crime, and #2 is sent to prison by Dec 1st 11:59pm, 2023. He must be physically at the prison to resolve YES.
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This resolves YES too then https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-sbf-be-in-jail-by-dec-2024?r=Tmljb0RlbG9u
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There’s a cautionary tale here. When you make markets on issues you lack any technical familiarity with, you create risk for yourself and more importantly, for traders. Unless you can’t help it, don’t do it. Or ask for feedback on resolution criteria. Or at the very least: be responsive to queries.
No one has to create markets. But if one does, one takes on responsibilities.
@NicoDelon Trust me, there have been markets I wanted to create, but did not since I lacked the knowledge in full of the question I would have asked.
Me: makes market on whether sbf parents are in prison in 2024
Me: watch sbf visitor lists til they come to visit him
Me: resolve YES the moment they set foot in the prison. Muahahaha
@MarcusAbramovitch He's listed as an inmate, and i've seen several sources stating that he has complained about the living situation there.
@Wobbles What about the fact the he wasn't "sent to prison" because of this case, but his bail was revoked in the second case because of witness tampering?
You'd have a better argument if his bail was revoked DUE TO this conviction, but that didn't happen. He was already in custody. Elizabeth Holmes traipsed around for months after conviction, and SBF could too, EXCEPT for the other case, where he can't make bail.
@Wobbles I would say N/A. For the 2 markets you have up for this.
How to convince you, I am not sure. I would say, take it as a learning experience on how the FBOP defines Prison and their system. (What I posted proof of)
If everyone understood the FBOP system, this would have been above 70% leading up to conviction since 1 criteria had been met of the 2.
Just my opinion, and I sold my position as the flood of comments came in at a small tiny 14 mana loss.
@SirCryptomind N/A would be fair, imo, because this market is ambiguous. I agree with Sir Cyptomind.
@MarcusAbramovitch to be clear this resolution has nothing to do with the trial, only sparked by it. To my own fault I haven't really been updating myself on sbf's situation, so this would've resolved several months ago if I had known.
@Wobbles You could not have met condition #1, convicted, until last night.
He simply had his bail revoked before.
Fair resolution here is N/A. No harm no foul. But I was betting this like a sentencing market, not a conviction and denied bail on a separate case condition.
@Wobbles Understood but in that case, based on the way this was traded, i think it makes more sense to N/A this market
@Wobbles SBF is yet to be imprisoned though. You say you are making a distinction between a jail and a prison but it doesn't look like you are.
The prison term hasn't started yet and will not start until next year.
@Akzzz123 In the US, sentencing time starts at reprimand after guilty verdict with the option to include time leading up to trial during sentencing date, regardless of the official sentencing date.
@SirCryptomind Yes but his current status is better defined as being in jail and not in prison.
@Akzzz123 It is a detention center which is categorized as a Tiered Prison System under FBOP as seen in the proof I posted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_federal_prisons
But I do understand everyone or anyone interpreting it as jail vs prison and any other variation of terminology that may be used.
This and the June 2024 market should N/A in my view. We need better descriptions and the creator should have near full understanding of the question, which I understand @Wobbles may have not known at the time, but has learned now, and learning something everyday is positive.
I will say no more. Love you all 😂