Due to the loan system on manifold, it's possible to end up with a negative net worth as a result of a market going against you. We saw this happen in a big way with the Whales Vs Minnows market where @IsaacKing ended up with a net worth of around -M2,000,000.

Will this happen to the collective tune of more than M500k as a result of the markets on the replication of the supposed LK-99 superconductor?

Resolution criteria:

• I'll count a "mana bankruptcy" as someone's net worth (not balance!) going negative. This may not conform to the common sense definition of bankruptcy but it makes for a catchier title

• Someone's mana bankruptcy counts as being caused by a (set of) market(s) if, where it not for the loss they made on that market, they would not be bankrupt. This loss does not have to be realised for it to count. Note that this introduces an edge case where you make a profit on the LK-99 markets but go bankrupt for some other reason, this does not count towards the total

• The amount of a mana bankruptcy is how negative your net worth is (not how much you lost on the market(s)). The total amount is the sum of all these amounts for all the users who have gone mana bankrupt. Note that this may go up or down over time as users can become unbankrupt, I'm interested in the total at a particular point in time

• Any market with over M20k volume, that is basically about whether LK-99 turns out to be a superconductor counts. Meta markets do not count, including this one

• This market resolves YES when either the net bankrupt amount has been clearly over M500k for more than 1 week, or is over M500k on the resolution date (what I'm saying here is that it can resolve early)

• This market resolves NO otherwise (only on the resolution date)

• In the event that it's very close or ambiguous for some reason (such as a meta-ish market getting a lot of volume), I will try my best to resolve it positively one way or the other according to common sense, even if the exact criteria above are not met. I may resolve it N/A if this is not possible

For reference: last time I checked the mana loan system was that you get 2% of the money you invested back as a loan for every day you are invested in a market. You have to pay this off when the market resolves. As a result of this people who invest in long term markets may end up with total loans much higher than their net worth, which is a fragile situation.

The reason I'm interested in this is it somewhat undermines the manifold economy if lots of people have a hugely negative net worth, because an equal amount of positive mana has to end up somewhere and this will cause inflation. It also puts the whole manaconomy at risk if, for instance, lots of people try to donate their mana to charity at once and this costs manifold way more than the revenue they are getting from people buying mana.