Presently I think ergocidity economics (Ole Peters's theory about how looking at the behavior over time of single rollouts of a random process is better than textbook expected utility calculations over the distribution of all possible rollouts) is probably crankery. Other mathematically inclined people, including ones I have some reason to respect, feel differently.

This market is to help me decide whether to be louder in public about this view and to provide a prize of valuable internet points to anyone who talks me around within a year. I intend to resolve YES or NO (currently I intend to resolve YES) but may resolve PROB if I feel nontrivially unsure.

The last time I spent much brainpower on Ole Peters: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gptXmhJxFiEwuPN98/meetup-notes-ole-peters-on-ergodicity#Paper__The_time_resolution_of_the_St_Petersburg_Paradox