Will anyone get Nobel prize for results related to ergodicity economics before 2030?
Basic
10
Ṁ6102030
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ergodicity economics is everything stemming from idea in origininal paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-019-0732-0
That is idea that real life violations of expected utiliy theory do sometimes reflect non-ergodicity of wealth dynamics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity_economics
I will bet on this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@gigab0nus Sure thanks! That signals I am bad at statistics and one without any preferences on question should probably bet NO then :D
Related questions
Related questions
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
49% chance
Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
49% chance
Will someone win a Nobel prize in Economics for contributions to blockchain/cryptocurrencies by 2040?
50% chance
Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for work on superconductors before 2034?
48% chance
Will Nobel Prizes be awarded in 2060?
70% chance
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
29% chance
Will either a Nobel Prize in Economics or a Turing Award be awarded to Satoshi Nakamoto before 2050?
7% chance
Will a nonhuman win a Nobel Prize by 2100?
46% chance
Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?
43% chance