Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2023. Otherwise, NO.
Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.
Info I think will be helpful:
As of Nov 30, 2022, I have had COVID once (in August 2022).
My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection.
I live in Seattle, WA, USA
Relevant previous markets:
I've been mildly sick the last 2-3 days. 99.5F fever, sleeping more than normal, general feeling of "being sick", body aches, apparent need to drink more water than normal. No respiratory symptoms. I've taken 3 rapid tests over the last 48h - all negative.
Minor update: I decided I won't get any more boosters unless they're updated to a new strain. I have had 4 doses of the original Pfizer/Moderna shots, and I got the bivalent booster in October 2022.
The reader may also be interested in this pair of conditional markets predicting the effect of this policy:
- https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditional-on-getting-more-of-the
- https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditioned-on-not-getting-more-of
@charlie Whenever I feel slightly sick or have unusual respiratory symptoms. Which comes to maybe twice a month?
Will I get COVID in 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition