Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2023. Otherwise, NO.
Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.
Info I think will be helpful:
As of Nov 30, 2022, I have had COVID once (in August 2022).
My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection.
I live in Seattle, WA, USA
Relevant previous markets:
1,000
3.00A few background questions, if you don't mind. Feel free to ignore if they're too personal.
When was the last time you felt ill enough to take a test? Was that the 2023-09-24 update?
How old are you?
How frequently are you indoors with people you don't live with? (Work in an office, classroom, etc.)
Does "bug chase" mean actively pursue exposure to friends who have COVID? Or just actively socialize and be indoors and such?
When was the last time you felt ill enough to take a test? Was that the 2023-09-24 update?
I think so!
How old are you?
36!
How frequently are you indoors with people you don't live with? (Work in an office, classroom, etc.)
2-3 times a week. I go to an indoor social dance of 30+ people at least once a week.
Does "bug chase" mean actively pursue exposure to friends who have COVID? Or just actively socialize and be indoors and such?
Just actively socialize and be indoors.
The reader may also be interested in this pair of conditional markets predicting the effect of this policy:
- https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditional-on-getting-more-of-the
- https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditioned-on-not-getting-more-of
@charlie Whenever I feel slightly sick or have unusual respiratory symptoms. Which comes to maybe twice a month?
