Will I get COVID in 2023?
32
212
1.6K
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Will resolve YES if I test positive on any high-specificity COVID test (most likely to be a rapid antigen or PCR test) before the end of 2023. Otherwise, NO.

Ask forecast-relevant questions in the comments, and I will make a good faith effort to answer them.

Info I think will be helpful:

  • As of Nov 30, 2022, I have had COVID once (in August 2022).

  • My current strategy for COVID is "vaccinate and bug-chase". I'll get any future updated vaccines, but besides that I will take no precautions. My theory is that I'll keep my immunity current by getting exposed to each new strain as it arrives and that this is (a) likely to result in no infection severe enough to notice/test positive and (b) almost certain to result in no severe consequences of infection.

  • I live in Seattle, WA, USA

Relevant previous markets:

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predicted NO

Reopened for a few more days because I decided I was interested in seeing the last few weeks of forecasting after all.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

A few background questions, if you don't mind. Feel free to ignore if they're too personal.

  • When was the last time you felt ill enough to take a test? Was that the 2023-09-24 update?

  • How old are you?

  • How frequently are you indoors with people you don't live with? (Work in an office, classroom, etc.)

  • Does "bug chase" mean actively pursue exposure to friends who have COVID? Or just actively socialize and be indoors and such?

predicted NO
  • When was the last time you felt ill enough to take a test? Was that the 2023-09-24 update?

I think so!

  • How old are you?

36!

  • How frequently are you indoors with people you don't live with? (Work in an office, classroom, etc.)

2-3 times a week. I go to an indoor social dance of 30+ people at least once a week.

  • Does "bug chase" mean actively pursue exposure to friends who have COVID? Or just actively socialize and be indoors and such?

Just actively socialize and be indoors.

predicted NO
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bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

Got the updated booster yesterday!

predicted NO

Feeling itchy in the back of my nose...

predicted NO

@WilliamEhlhardt Took a rapid test. Negative!

predicted NO

I've been mildly sick the last 2-3 days. 99.5F fever, sleeping more than normal, general feeling of "being sick", body aches, apparent need to drink more water than normal. No respiratory symptoms. I've taken 3 rapid tests over the last 48h - all negative.

predicted NO

another negative rapid test, though I also did some coughing

predicted NO

Minor update: I decided I won't get any more boosters unless they're updated to a new strain. I have had 4 doses of the original Pfizer/Moderna shots, and I got the bivalent booster in October 2022.

predicted NO

The reader may also be interested in this pair of conditional markets predicting the effect of this policy:

- https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditional-on-getting-more-of-the
- https://manifold.markets/WilliamEhlhardt/conditioned-on-not-getting-more-of

predicted NO

Added M$1000 of subsidy because I value your opinions!

How often do you test?

predicted NO

@charlie Whenever I feel slightly sick or have unusual respiratory symptoms. Which comes to maybe twice a month?

predicted NO

Now <1/month I think

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